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Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference obstructed from the leadership if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.