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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd